基于向量相似度的组合赋权方法

针对多属性决策中属性权重的确定问题,提出了一种基于向量相似度的主、客观权重的集成方法。用权向量的相似度作为不同赋权方法重要性的度量,意义明确,计算简单,可操作性强。最后结合算例验证了此方法的有效性和实用性。     

Assessing the value of demand sharing in supply chains

We consider the problem of assessing the value of demand sharing in a multistage supply chain in which the retailer observes stationary autoregressive moving average demand with Gaussian white noise (shocks). Similar to previous research, we assume each supply chain player constructs its best linear forecast of the leadtime demand and uses it to determine the order quantity via a periodic review myopic order‐up‐to policy. We demonstrate how a typical supply chain player can determine the extent of its available information in the presence of demand sharing by studying the properties of the moving average polynomials of adjacent supply chain players. The retailer's demand is driven by the random shocks appearing in the autoregressive moving average representation for its demand. Under the assumptions we will make in this article, to the retailer, knowing the shock information is equivalent to knowing the demand process (assuming that the model parameters are also known). Thus (in the event of sharing) the retailer's demand sequence and shock sequence would contain the same information to the retailer's supplier. We will show that, once we consider the dynamics of demand propagation further up the chain, it may be that a player's demand and shock sequences will contain different levels of information for an upstream player. Hence, we study how a player can determine its available information under demand sharing, and use this information to forecast leadtime demand. We characterize the value of demand sharing for a typical supply chain player. Furthermore, we show conditions under which (i) it is equivalent to no sharing, (ii) it is equivalent to full information shock sharing, and (iii) it is intermediate in value to the two previously described arrangements. Although it follows from existing literature that demand sharing is equivalent to full information shock sharing between a retailer and supplier, we demonstrate and characterize when this result does not generalize to upstream supply chain players. We then show that demand propagates through a supply chain where any player may share nothing, its demand, or its full information shocks (FIS) with an adjacent upstream player as quasi‐ARMA in—quasi‐ARMA out. We also provide a convenient form for the propagation of demand in a supply chain that will lend itself to future research applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 515–531, 2014     

基于灰色神经网络的装甲部队油料消耗预测

油料消耗量的精确预测直接影响装甲部队后勤保障能力的提升,而传统预测模型精度不高,应用范围也有一定的局限,难以满足信息化战争精确保障的需要。提出一种装甲部队油料消耗预测的组合模型,对历史油料消耗数据和油耗影响因素进行统计分析,求出各影响因素与油耗量的关联度作为权重系数;通过改进GM(1,1)模型预测某部队下一次军事行动的油耗量;用GM(1,1)模型的预测值、加权后的各影响因素值和油耗实际值训练网络,对下一次想定的军事行动油耗量进行预测。通过平均相对误差计算表明,组合预测模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型预测精度高,能够较好地指导部队进行下一步的油料供管工作。     

舰炮火控雷达实测误差时序特性分析建模

针对舰炮火控雷达高精度实时仿真建模的问题,运用高斯分布和正态平稳过程的两种误差序列生成方法,建立火控雷达简化仿真模型。通过对某火控雷达实测数据误差的统计及时序相关性分析,完成误差序列仿真生成与验证,给出了实现舰炮火控雷达探测误差仿真的优选方法。实践证明,正态平稳模型的误差生成方法可以有效满足新型舰炮仿真试验火控雷达建模要求。     

On the Determinants of Terrorism Risk Concern in Europe

We investigate whether differences in terrorism risk are mirrored on terrorism risk perception across European countries for the period 2003–2007. We find that the average propensity for terrorism risk concern is affected by actual risk levels. Country and individual heterogeneity contribute substantially to the variation of observed risk perception. Singles and individuals with white collar jobs are less likely to mention terrorism as one of the most pressing issues their country faces, while political positioning towards the right makes it more likely to be concerned about terrorism. As far as competing risks are concerned, we find that the likelihood terrorism is mentioned, decreases with spending on pensions as a percentage of GDP being higher. Finally, based on the Bayesian framework, we also examined the formation of terrorism risk perceptions, and decompose the observed country-level time series of terrorism activity into a long- and a short-run component. We concluded that the observed risk perception variation is only explained by the long-term trend of terrorism activity countries face.     

诗学视域下的高校英美文学教学探讨

当今国内的英美文学研究已呈现出从赏析到文论探讨的趋势,英美文学课程的教学也应该适应这一趋势。广义的文论也称为诗学,包括形式诗学和文化诗学两大部分。形式诗学要求英美文学的教学注重文本分析等技术手段,文化诗学则要求英美文学的教学与历史、文化等因素相结合,扩展视野,增加深度。两者的有效结合将给国内高校的英美文学教学带来全新的体验和特色。     

组合赋权法在指控系统性能评估中的应用

对作战单元以上级防空导弹指控系统的性能评估是一个多目标评价过程,多目标评价中的关键点是目标权重的确定.运用基于最小三乘原理的组合赋权法,根据给定的评估指标体系,对指控系统性能进行综合评价,给出了系统性能的评估算法,并在仿真系统中得到验证.     

加肋轴对称组合壳塑性极限分析 专用软件LAFEMAT的研制

基于轴对称截锥壳单元,建立了加肋轴对称组合壳塑性极限分析的有限元计算方法;应用Fortran语言编制了LAFEMAT专用软件.该软件通过分步加载,计算每一载荷步作用下组合壳单元的应力状态,采用一系列弹性计算方法模拟弹-塑性计算,直至组合壳达到极限状态,从而求得极限载荷.实例证明:该专用软件具有较高的计算效率和精度.     

一种基于兼容度的组合评估方法

分析了单一评估方法的局限性,基于兼容度准则提出一种将综合指数法和功效评分法等常用评估方法组合而成的一种综合评估方法,采用该方法对潜艇声纳的作战性能进行了评估分析.算例分析表明,该方法对于提高评估结果的可信性具有明显的作用.     

一种基于串联谐振型变换器的激光电源设计

激光器电源是激光器装置的重要组成部分,其泵浦方式分为光激励、放电激励、能量激励等,均必须配有相适应的供电电源。基于脉冲式固体激光器中负载是气体放电器件的激光电源,设计了一种带有预燃放电功能的半桥LCC串联谐振逆变电路,可实现每次点灯不必使用高压触发脉冲,避免触发高压的电磁辐射干扰。使得当灯处于低阻状态时,电容器上的能量能更有效地转换成光能。整体电源设计结构简单,可靠性高,可满足激光器对电源稳态工作的要求,在应用预燃电路后,激光输出能量可提高10%。